The dominant factor this NBA season is the schedule, 82 games, and how teams deal with it. For some teams and players it will be 82 opportunities to improve. For the other teams it will be about survival, getting to the end of the week, the month and ultimately the full season.
How teams approach the schedule will, I think, shape what happens and determine which teams contend for the championship. The Eastern conference is up for grabs, and the teams that improve the most over the season will be the ones to watch in March and April. In Western conference is closely contested by more quality teams than can make the playoffs, and the teams that get the most games from their best players will be the ones contending.
That is all pretty basic. What is more interesting is how the team lineup dynamics play out. Teams have two approaches for how to get the most games out of their best players, both involve sports science. Teams that want to protect All-Star talents from severe, possibly season-ending injuries, will monitor wear and tear closely and rest those players strategically to maximize those scare resources. The more innovative alternative is to increase the number of “best” players and use sports science to develop talent as the season goes on.
Eastern conference teams have lots of roster spots out there to develop. The teams that I think will be at the top of the standings are Cleveland, Chicago and Toronto have star players that give them everpresent advantages. They also have depth and are in good position to cultivate roles for 8-10 more players. The advantages that teams can wring out of lineups featuring role players will go a long way to keeping wear and tear down on stars. The Nets might be up at the top too, but seem to be more fragile than anti-fragile, compared to the other three. Teams with the stars but not the depth include New York, Miami, Charlotte and Washington. Teams with depth but no obvious stars will be fun to watch and have a real opportunity to innovate, clubs like Boston, Detroit, Milwaukee and Orlando that all have a chance to break out and play at a high level. Philadelphia, Indiana and Atlanta are a mess.
You can break out the Western conference the same way. Teams with stars and with depth are Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio. Teams with stars but missing depth: Golden State, the Clippers, Houston, New Orleans and Oklahoma City. Two teams, Memphis and Portland, have stars but will deal with a fragile/anti-fragile situation when it comes to depth. The deep teams without established stars are Denver, Minnesota and Utah, and I like the Nuggets to break out like Phoenix did last season. The Lakers and Sacramento are both disaster areas.