The money at stake in sports is big, and growing. I cannot imagine what it is to be a talented athlete like football player Todd Gurley, recovering from serious injury, and compelled to show how healthy (or unhealthy) he is during NFL combine week. His doctor, noted orthopaedist James Andrews, said his recovery is ahead of schedule, something that means he is making gains in strength and performance by the day, probably. Each advance by Gurley is dollars in his pocket, but the situation is likely to remain fluid for some time and he is still months away from returning to elite athleticism.
NBA eyeballs were on the Thursday trade deadline. Philadelphia 76ers took apart a roster that had improved noticeably since December, forcing developing players to share the court with mostly inexperienced point guards for the rest of this season. I heard listening to ESPN Radio that 76ers General Manager Sam Hinkie thought of basketball in terms of Expected Value, something that let him look past a player’s makes and misses to assess future performance in broad statistical terms. (Watch his press conference here.) The comment reminded me of what I had heard from athletes’ trainers who do not enjoy watching games–a lot of the suspense has gone away with their in-depth understanding of what elite athletes are capable of.
There is a big difference in the expected value and the expected performance predictions though. Expected value pegs a probability of the range of possible outcomes. An achievement is typically a series of outcomes where the probabilities daisy-chain from start to finish, and the final probability of any achievement is all of the event outcome probabilities multiplied together. So if five things need to happen to achieve something, and the probability of each of those things happening is likely, say 85%, then final likelihood of succeeding is 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.85, or 44%. What seems likely is actually improbable. Athletes attempting to reach the peak of their abilities run a gauntlet of challenges and, probably in reality, most don’t become All Star-level performers. But some do.
Judging based on expected performance instead of expected value is less analytical, but more hopeful. Performance always has upside. The challenge (and the opportunity) is always there to improve. Over time things can change and gains can be made, and when those gains, either in terms of skill, athleticism or, even, insight, the estimates for expected value often need to be re-evaluated.
For every young athlete who has a chance to join the professional ranks the situation is not really that different from what is confronting Gurley. There is a moneymaking window at hand, but that window is based on expected value. But that window closes and expected value is subject to change, while the opportunity to improve is almost always there.
The Best Things I Read Last Week
- RECOVERY TECHNIQUES FOR ATHLETES Aspetar Sports Medicine Journal … This excellent quarterly sports science report is out with an issue focused on Post-Exercise Recovery.
- Match Running Performance During Fixture Congestion in Elite Soccer: Research Issues and Future Directions Sports Medicine journal … The authors (led by Christopher Carling) call for a more nuanced and wholistic look into the negative affects on athletes during periods of fixture congestions in elite soccer.
- The Shape of Things to Come The New Yorker … In-depth profile of Apple lead designer Jonathan Ive talks a little bit about the upcoming Apple watch, but mostly it talks about the many challenges involved with getting the form, function and performance just right when the task is designing new technology products.
- HOW TO DEVELOP YOUR FIRST GOOGLE FIT APP Programmable Web … At the opposite end of the spectrum from Ive, the Google developer interfaces are an available path for health professionals with a base of technical skill to make exactly the tools they know they can use.
- Interview with Jeroen Deen, one of leading sports physiotherapists in the world, A View from Kenya, by Justin Lagat RunBlogRun … Physios are undervalued sources of preventive care for top athletes. Any source that tells more about what they do is essential reading.