New research by Stephanie Kovalchik in the Journal of Sports Sciences makes a couple of points about the career arcs of elite female tennis players. The very best tend to earn their first professional ranking at a younger age (15) and they stay ranked further into their careers (until almost 30).
The subtext of the Kovalchik analysis says a few things. Young athletes with ambition to be among the best in their sport need to have both the physical gifts and the willingness to compete, and succeed, above their age level. Ambitious athletes also need to cultivate habits that serve them in the short run and continue to help them as their careers advance.
The Independent asked why is Wayne Rooney in decline while older European soccer players like Christiano Renaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic continue to thrive. The article points out the beneficial effect of quality fitness habits, but also says that Rooney isn’t benefitting from the above-level Premiere League football he played starting at age 17. Too much wear and tear, and no amount of preventive fitness and care can help.
The start of the NBA season means questions about the continued durability of the indestructible Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James. These are athletes with superior habits but they also have genetic size and strength attributes that continue to provide them physical advantages, contributing to their superior skills. (Other NBA players are struggling with athletic decline.)
Maybe more interesting is the look of young players who join the league’s elite. Aaron Gordon is an exceptional athlete but his speed, strength and leaping ability have yet to translate to All-Star basketball. Kelly Oubre has sought to play above his age range, and now he is doing the work to find his ceiling as a player. In football, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is emerging as a top-flight NFL quarterback.
It varies from sport to sport but 5-10% of athletes attain the next level of competition, whether that’s the jump from high school to college, or college to professional. With slightly more than 400 NBA roster players, that means 20-40 elite players spread out among the 30 teams, which sounds about right.
There’s a trajectory for becoming one of the very best in sport. But it remains to be seen whether the new sports science will alter the traditional athletes’ trajectory and create new pathways for athletes to develop, improve and advance.
More things that I read and liked last week: