The path forward from Point A, the start, to Point B, the goal, is a guess. The more challenging the goal the greater the number of things that need to happen to reach it. If all of those things have some uncertainty, some likelihood less than 100% of happening, the final probability of making it from A to B is all of those intermediate probabilities multiplied.
If there are 5 things that need to happen, and all of them are likely but uncertain (let’s say 75% probability), the likelihood of everything going right is 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75, or about 24%. It turns out that what appears realistic is actually pretty unlikely. Murphy’s Law, what can go wrong will go wrong, is sort of on target.
But that is not how success stories get told. The path to triumph at Point B has hurdles but everything goes right, and that narrative becomes the lesson for everyone who has the same objective to follow. Often in the story there is a single crucial factor. Kyle Korver and Kenyan runners push themselves and persevere. Coaches can either compel or support players to bring out their ability. Scouts stalk the playing fields and analysts scour the data identify the individuals with the stuff to become great athletes. These are single factor explanations for outcomes that, in reality, depend on multiple factors.
If the deck is stacked against accomplishing anything difficult the act of trying should at least be a worthwhile, enjoyable experience, something fun and enjoyable
There should also be steps to take to make the most of athletic opportunity. Firstmost is to avoid injury, so the athlete can see payoff from perservering and absorb all the coaching, while remaining present for the scouting.
It is weak narrative though. Korver and Kenyans are good at not getting hurt. Good coaches keep players out of the trainers table. Scouts have paths for late-bloomers that are different from early-bloomers. And everyone hopes things work out, like maybe it will for soccer playing teens Christian Pulisic and Haji Wright.